Crystal Ball Predictions

Three Connected Car Questions

By Automotive, Autonomous, Connected, Electric, Shared Vehicles, Telematics No Comments

Three Connected Car Questions for 2016

Q: Will autonomous cars be available in 2016?

No, they won’t. Automakers are making steady progress in autonomous navigation and driving technologies, and some of the building blocks are being gradually introduced in new cars. We will see advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) technologies offered in a growing number of cars in the form of automatic emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assistance and self-parking.

But it’s unlikely that self-driving cars will be roaming our streets for at least another 5 years. By 2020 we might see low speed self-driving cars or people-moving pods in limited-use applications such as company campuses, airport transfer services and retirement communities. Establishing dedicated paths or highway lanes for autonomous vehicles will accelerate the adoption and utilization of driverless cars.

Q: Will Google build an autonomous car?

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Microsoft’s New Focus on Automotive Apps, Cloud Services

By Automotive No Comments

Having Lost the Infotainment Battle, Microsoft is Focusing on Apps, Cloud Services

In my 2016 predictions, article, I made the point that in the ongoing battle for the car’s infotainment screen Microsoft has probably lost to Google, Apple and QNX. Five years ago, Microsoft’s software was driving Ford’s highly celebrated SYNC infotainment system.  SYNC was installed in 80% of new Ford vehicles and was responsible for rave reviews that contributed to J.D. Power ranking Ford fifth in its 2011 J.D. Power Initial Quality Study (IQS).  So successful was SYNC, that in celebration of one million SYNC vehicles produced, Ford CEO Alan Mullaly gave Microsoft’s Steve Balmer a new Ford Fusion Hybrid.

But that was in 2011. Read More

CES 2016: Why Carmakers Pay Attention to a Consumer Electronics Show?

By Automotive One Comment

CES is Becoming the Most Influential Auto Show

Until not long ago, the landscape of car shows and automotive technology symposia was fairly easy to sort out.

Futuristic concept cars and new car models were typically introduced in a number of international, national and regional auto shows that attracted car aficionados, auto media, and some coverage from the local newspaper auto section.

If you were more into audio and infotainment systems and car accessories, you’d probably plan to visit the SEMA Show and mingle with a fair number of “pimp my ride” devotees.

On the other hand, if you were interested in automotive research and development and wanted to attend technical presentations about core vehicle technologies and network with like-minded automotive engineers, you would choose SAE’s World Congress. Automotive Standards?  Again, SAE. Read More

Elon Musk: Never Let a Good Crisis Go To Waste

By Automotive, Autonomous, Connected, Electric, Shared Vehicles 2 Comments

Following the Volkswagen emissions scandal, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk and 44 CEOs, investors and environmental organizations sent an open letter to Mary Nichols, the chairperson of California’s Air Resources Board (CARB). (By the way, no other auto executive signed the letter; more on this later.)

In the letter, the authors argue that industry has reached the point of diminishing returns in extracting greater performance from diesel while reducing air pollutants. Therefore, they reason, any money spent by VW attempting to fix cars that cannot be fixed or removing these cars from the reads before the end of their useful lives will be wasted.

Instead, the signers encourage the CARB to direct VW to “cure the air, not the cars.” They suggest to release VW from its obligation to fix diesel cars already on the road in California and direct the company to accelerate the rollout of zero emission vehicles and to achieve at least tenfold reduction in pollutant emissions over the next 5 years.

Furthermore, VW will be required to invest in new manufacturing plants and/or research and development in the amounts that it otherwise would have been fined. Specifically, the letter suggests that VW will invest in building a large battery manufacturing plant.

I think this proposal deserves consideration.

Cynics might suggest that Musk is using this crisis to promote awareness to electric vehicle (EV) technologies and drive market activity in a space that continues to exhibit a disappointedly sluggish growth. Since its introduction in 212, Tesla’s global cumulative Model S sales just made it passed the 100,000 units mark, compared to 88 million cars sold annually worldwide.

You could also suggest that the announcement in 2014 that Tesla is releasing its patents to the public was a publicity stunt and a desperate attempt to prop the fledgling EV space.

Or, you might say, the ability to meet future demand for electric vehicle will be severely hampered by limited availability of battery packs. In 2014, Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory battery manufacturing plant outside Sparks, Nevada. Forcing VW to spend some of its money on the same is going to further mitigate supply chain risks for Tesla, and for Tesla’s competitors, which, I believe, is the real motivation behind the letter.

Although Musk has an auto manufacturing company to run, he is looking farther than that. He truly wants to “cure the air” and has proven time and again he is willing to invest his own money and take financial risks for causes he believes in.

Musk is willing to share, collaborate and be in a “coopetition” where it accelerates innovation and spur more competition. Unfortunately, traditional automakers do not operate in the spirit of “the rising tide lifts all boats” and are unlikely to join Musk and the other executives in learning from the VW scandal and use it as an opportunity to move the industry forward.

(Photo: Francis Storr via Flickr)

 

2016: Trends, Predictions and Opportunities

By Augmented / Virtual Reality, Automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), Service Lifecycle Management (SLM) 5 Comments

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT): Still More Talk Than Walk

The torrent of breathless headlines, rosy economic predictions and novel business ideas will continue in 2016, but, overall, there will be more talk than walk. At the same time, the promise, even if overly optimistic, is real, meaningful and worth pursuing, and the number of companies exploring it will continue to grow.

Excitement over IIoT, bolstered by increased corporate budgets, will continue to fuel new initiatives and projects, although they will be mostly driven by the lines of business, resulting in one-off non-scalable implementations. Lack of adequate standards, and sometimes the availability of multiple of standards will contribute to the proliferation of “limited edition” IIoT.

Security and privacy concerns will linger.  Demonstrations of hackable devices and vulnerable industrial networks, especially with the United States presidential election campaigns that keep cybersecurity and rogue forces in the public eye, will impede large scale implementations, especially of public IIoT systems.  Companies that offer robust methods for securing the IIoT will get the attention of investors and industrial companies alike. Read More